Oilsands production expected to rebound after pandemic-linked 2020 slump

Oilsands production expected to rebound after pandemic-linked 2020 slump

CALGARY — A new report predicts Canadian oilsands production will have its biggest annual decline on record this year, dropping by an average of nearly 175,000 barrels per day due to issues associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

But research firm IHS Markit says the step back in 2020 isn’t expected to greatly affect the rest of its 10-year forecast.

It says it expects oilsands production to reach 3.8 million barrels per day by 2030, down slightly from a previous forecast for 3.9 million bpd, but still a 1.1 million bpd increase from the 2020 projected production.

Oilsands production is anticipated to rise over the second half of 2020 and into 2021 as barrels curtailed due to low prices come back online and capacity that has never been fully utilized ramps up.

It says oilsands output by 2022 could be 300,000 bpd higher than in 2019 if the Alberta government eases its oil curtailment program introduced in early 2019 to better align production with limited pipeline takeaway capacity.

It says most of the growth in production will come from small investments in projects where some capital has already been deployed — less than a third will come from new greenfield operations or project expansions.

“Despite the COVID-induced shocks of 2020 the longer-term expectations for Canadian oilsands are not far off from what was expected prior to the pandemic,” said IHS vice-president Kevin Birn.

“The scale of installed production capacity that exists today, the lack of material production declines from existing operations in the medium-to-long term and the ability to optimize and leverage current operations support growth.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 28, 2020.

The Canadian Press

Oilsands

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

BRSD ready with a plan, welcomes recent change

Full plan will be released to parents, students soon

All Halkirk 2 Wind Project tower permits now approved

Appellants have 30 days to file an appeal

Alberta reports 257 new cases of COVID-19

Central zone has 157 active cases

Update: Possible drowning at Pigeon Lake involved man and woman from Edmonton

Bodies recovered from Pigeon Lake’s northeastern shores.

134 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday

First day over 100 cases since July 31

Charges likely in fatal attack at central Alberta medical clinic: RCMP

A vigil was held Monday night to mourn the victim

Cuts to environmental monitoring budget In Alberta’s oilsands are viewed as reckless

The 2019-2020 budget saw $58 million dollars being dedicated to environmental monitoring

Yellow Thunder back up and flying

Aerobatic team just starting to return after pandemic grounded them

Water quality advisory issued for Buffalo Lake at Rochon Sands

Elevated levels of fecal bacteria were detected via testing of Buffalo Lake water, at this beach location

Minister Nixon on ‘modernization’ of Alberta parks system

Nixon says closing parks was part of UCP election campaign

Over half of Americans oppose Trump tariff on Canadian aluminum: survey

The survey was conducted Aug. 7 to 9 among 1,513 Canadians and 1,003 Americans

Police investigating after insults, expletives yelled at federal minister’s staff

A 90-second video circulating on social media appears to have been shot by the person who was yelling

Rent-relief program becomes new front in fight between Liberals, opposition

Opposition trying to draw parallels between decision to have Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. run program and the WE controversy

Ottawa sets minimum unemployment rate at 13.1% for EI calculation

Statistics Canada says the unemployment rate was 10.9 per cent in July

Most Read